Brierly

Kalshi EV and edge calculator

Compare the price you'd pay with what you think the contract is really worth, after Kalshi's fee.

Edge on one bet

¢
%
$
$
+4.4 ptsBet

Clears your 3-pt bar after Kalshi's fee. Fee at 62¢ is about 1.65 pts.

Expected value$1.40
Contracts32.26
Fee (estimate)$0.53
¼ Kelly stake$14.26
edge = fair% − price¢ − fee  ·  EV = contracts × (fair − price) − fee

Worked example

The contract trades at 62¢ and you make it 68%. The gap is 6 points. Kalshi's taker fee at 62¢ is 0.07 × 0.62 × 0.38 ≈ 1.65 points, so your edge is about 4.35 points. On a $20 stake that is roughly 32 contracts and an expected value near $1.40.

Edge is a claim, not a result

A positive edge only means something if your fair probabilities are honest. The way to check is to log every bet and compare what you predicted with what happened, and whether the price moved your way before the game started (closing line value).

FAQ

What is edge on Kalshi?

Edge is your fair probability minus the price you pay, minus the fee, in percentage points. A 68% fair probability on a 62¢ contract is a 6-point gap before fees.

Where does my fair probability come from?

Most traders remove the vig from sharp sportsbook odds with a devig calculator, or use their own model. Your edge is only as good as that number.

What is Kelly sizing?

Kelly is the stake that grows a bankroll fastest if your fair probability is exactly right. Because estimates are never exact, most people bet a quarter of it or less.